It was 1856, 160 years before the 2016 election, that the Republican Party ran its first candidate. The Party was formed by abolitionist Whigs in 1854 and soon joined by northern, abolitionist “Free Soil” Democrats. In 1856 they ran their first Presidential candidate John C. Freemont and lost that election, but by 1858 they had gained majorities in every northern state. In 1860, as we know, Abraham Lincoln was elected President and that, and the rest, is now history.
The reason the Republican Party was formed was dissatisfaction with the feebleness or lack of will by the Whig establishment to stand against slavery and the economic policies of the Southern Democrats. After the Democrats were able to pass the Kansas-Nebraska Act many saw the Whig Party as incapable of mustering the fortitude to end slavery and do anything else to stop the Democrat Party.
It is interesting that the political atmosphere is very similar to that of the 1950s. Republicans and Democrats are fed up with the fecklessness of their Parties. I, like Rush Limbaugh, Mark Levin and others, have for years told people that the best way to turn things back around is to reform the GOP. I was told that that will not happen and I did not want to believe it. I am now beginning to believe it. I also do not think that there was enough anger and energy to want to start a new or 3rd Party before now. I would not have thought it possible even now to see new Party emerge, BUT something happened today that has me thinking it could happen this time.
Everyone has been expecting Donald Trump to bolt from the GOP if he did not get his way. He has made a pledge not to, as long as he is treated fairly. So far the GOP officials in charge have played fair, BUT we now learn that certain parties are secretly (NOT SO MUCH) planning to hijack the Convention and have a “Brokered Convention”. Brokered really means FIXED or RIGGED. The usual suspects are all Bush people. Dick Cheney, Mitch Daniels and others who want either Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio or both as the nominees. They may even throw Carly Fiorina in the mix to try and get the female vote.
That is not, however, what made me think that the GOP is in real danger. As I said , everyone has been expecting Donald Trump to make the first move from the GOP if he did not get his way, but he has made a pledge not to, as long as he is treated fairly, and he has been true to his word. Today however, I and everyone else, is shocked to learn that it is not Donald Trump who has threatened to bolt form the GOP if the Brokered Convention comes about. No, it is Ben Carson who has now threatened to leave. If Ben has threatened to do so, I cannot imagine Trump not also making the move.
Just imagine if Trump takes his 35% and Carson takes his 15-25% and they form a new Party. I could also actually see several members of Congress joining them. Then imagine if Ted Cruz decided to join as well. You now have 60-70% of the entire GOP voting public no longer in the GOP.
Because by rule they may not be able to field a candidate for the November 2016 election, if they left, it could be 1856 all over again when the new Party lost. BUT by the 2018 mid terms they could run Congressional candidates in every state and by 2020 they could put forth a very viable and attractive Presidential ticket.
The GOP establishment is rolling the dice in a very dangerous game. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.