Sunday, July 03, 2005

Why A Clinton/Obama Ticket Cannot Win In 2008

The other day I received an email blast from Wayne Perryman. Wayne asked the question of whether a Hillary Clinton/Barak Obama ticket could win the presidency in 2008. Wayne's answer was no, and he gave some good reasons.

Below I want to give you 5 more reasons, and as they say a picture is worth a thousand words.


These official Mexican stamps were released last week to a huge outcry from civil rights activists and any one with any sense. The White House objecttion to the release of the stamps was swift and strong saying: “racial stereotypes are offensive no matter what their origin and have no place in today’s world."

But Mexican president Vincente Fox who has not yet completely gotten his other foot out of his mouth after a remark in May that, "Mexican immigrants take jobs in the U.S. that not even blacks want," proceeded to insert his other foot by stating that the character is not offensive, but is a beloved comic book character." Beloved by whom Mr. Fox?

The spokesman for the Mexican postal authority echoed President Foxes opinion that the stamps are not offensive, adding that "he is a beloved traditional character." I am willing to bet Memin Pinguin (the character depicted in the cartoon and stamps) is not a super hero. Not unless you consider "Speedy Gonzalez" a super hero, as this is who the spokesman for the postal authorities likened the charater to.

What these recent remarks and the release of the stamps reveal is that there is an unspoken divide between Hispanics and those of African descendent. Although there is public show of mutual respect among the communities, and a common antagonism toward the dominant European American culure, there is no real love between these 2 communities. This is shown here in the official attitudes of the Mexican government, but is well known to those living in most large metropolitan areas. In Los Angeles, just this past school year, there were a number of fights and near riots between black & Hispanic students. It was so bad that the newly elected mayor has had to get involved.

I am willing to predict that having Obama on a 2008 Presidential ticket for the Democrats would bring no less that 25 percentage points to the GOP and probably more. That is on top of the 35% they already gave the GOP in 2004.

I guess Jesse Jackson will need to set up a second residence in Mexico with all of the work to be done there. If he does look for it to be in Cacun

12 Comments:

Blogger RaisingPaine said...

Frankly, Eddie, I couldn't disagree with you more. However, before sticking my foot in my mouth ala Mr. Fox, I'd be interested in seeing Wayne's rationale for a Clinton/Obama ticket not having a chance.

4:28 PM  
Blogger Eddie Huff said...

Paine,

Which part could you, "not disagree with me more on?" Hillary & Obama not winning, or Hispanics not voting for a black man?

I need an email address to send you Wayne's post.

6:20 PM  
Blogger RaisingPaine said...

Actually the former more than the latter. Not being Hispanic, I'm in no position to make presumptions on their voting tastes next month, forget about three years from now. However, of my friends that are (and they do lean conservatively), I've been assured that they would maintain an open mind. Their loyalties seem to be with issues, not parties.

Anyway, my email address is Xyzzy98@aol.com. Looking forward to it.

RaisingPaine

10:05 AM  
Blogger RaisingPaine said...

Hi ....

Thanks for forwarding Wayne's posting. Without reprinting it here, I'll address the theses he put forth and quote verbatim where relevant.

Let's start with the brother's name. It's Barack Obama. Not Barak.

Wayne's note actually suggests the Hillary Clinton/Barack Obama ticket is strong, not weak, e.g.

"The thought of a Hillary/Obama ticket is very scary. The combination of having the first woman President and the first African American Vice President must be taken seriously!! "

"Can the Republicans put together a competitive ticket? "

"I hope and pray that the Party will seek our counsel if they really want to beat the unbeatable ticket of Hillary and Obama."

Wayne in no way suggests that such a ticket would be steamrollered by Republican opposition, he in fact makes just the opposite point -- that Republicans must be on their game to assure they can match up to that ticket in 2008.

And on that point (and it might be the only one) Wayne and I agree. This is the ticket I believe causes the biggest matchup problem for the Republicans because Clinton and Obama are both centrists. As with Bill Clinton, this forces those opponents (both during primary and general election) to move to the extremes in order to differentiate their views. Otherwise, the election deterioriates into one of personal likability -- and let's face it -- many politicians just aren't that likable. We saw what happened the last time Republicans were put in that box -- a landslide Democratic victory in 1996 (against perceived sourpuss Bob Dole).

Wayne suggests the Republican party will have to mute the voices of moderate, like John McCain, Arnold Schwarzenegger, and the like in favor of more conservative elements. The problem with that strategy is that it's precisely those moderate Republicans that poll the best against most progressive Democratic tickets (especially McCain). The dilemma those moderates face, however, is while they poll well against prospective Democratic tickets, they poll poorly against other Republican candidates -- meaning they're an underdog (including McCain) to even survive the primary.

Wayne also mentions (in an argument, I presume, that attempts to fight fire with fire) that there is not "a national known black Republican that can attract the traditional black voter". Puh-leeze. In the same paragraph, he dismisses a Frist-Condoleeza Rice ticket. LOL, why in the world would he suggest Frist first on the ticket? There are at least a half-dozen "Draft Condi" sites on the web, but I've yet to find a single "Draft Bill Frist" site. This is not to insult Black voters by suggesting they would vote for Condoleeza just because she was Black -- but she brings a lot of intelligence, substance, credibility, and foreign-affairs experience to a White House run. I oftime wish the same could be said for her boss.

Further, Wayne states that the Republicans "...will have to increase their conservative base by spending millions of dollars to reach black voters through the black clergy during the off years". With what message?!

Pro-life? Without even addressing the inherent notion that overwhelmingly male institutions should pass judgement on a woman's right to choose, we can address this issue by looking at the alternative. Black families have been touched disproportionately by the issue of abortion, both pro and con, over the years. Adoption is a splendid alternative, except for the tens of thousands of unadopted minority children now in foster homes and orphanages across the country. Adoption presents a wonderful ideal in a color-blind world. Unfortunately, we're not there yet. White parents will still adopt Russian, Hispanic, and Asian children...before adopting Black children right in their own country. Making abortion illegal in the US will have a more profound impact on Black families, since they are less able to afford that trip to Canada or Europe to
obtain one.

Gay Rights and Same-Sex Marriage? These are state issues, not federal ones. Unless there is a Constitutional amendment outlawing same sex marriage, each state is free to acknowledge or not as they please. This is typical, Republican sacrificial-lamb thinking that they can alienate a group (in this gays) without electoral penalty since the number of gay Republicans are miniscule. Personally, IMHO, they could be wrong on both premise and conclusion, since families of gays also vote and there is no tally for the number of gays in the closet.

Sharing the Democrats racist past? ROFL, as opposed to the record of the Republicans?! Don't get me started...I am so sick of hearing about the Republicans being the party of Lincoln. Anyone that's read Lincoln's biography by Gore Vidal or even bothered to watch Ken Burn's award-winning documentary "The Civil War", knows that Lincoln's motives were more political than moral. He said as much himself in a newspaper response to an open letter -- his priority was preserving the Union. Lincoln said in that response that if he could preserve the Union by freeing all of the slaves, he would. If he could preserve it by freeing some of the slaves he would. And if he could preserve it by freeing no slaves, he would. In fact, the Emancipation Proclamation only liberates those in slavery that reside in States that took up arms against the Union. So those slaves in Maryland, Pennsylvania and other areas north of the Mason/Dixon got no direct relief. Lincoln's motives were to deprive Confederacy States of their free labor pool and at the same time gain moral favor from Western Europe, who were impressed with the Confederacy's ability to make military laughingstocks out of the better organized and equipped Union forces. But, I digress...

Social Security Reform? That message is barely playing to the Republic base, forget about on a national scale. Good luck with that.

Supreme Court Ruling on Eminent Domain? Lordy, I don't know if there's been a MORE unpopular Supreme Court ruling in the last 25 years. I can't think of one. The states will be very, very ginger about annexing someone's property for what amounts to increasing the overall tax base. This is one of those great theoretical debates, but come election time, no official will want to be on the wrong side of this issue. The president's own brother, here in Florida, said he won't back that kind of municipal Naziism.

School Voucher Program? I suppose, but that will only play with the subset of voters that have school age children. Even there, IMHO most parents would prefer to see the standard of their neighborhood schools raised through curriculum overhaul and a proper allocation of teachers, training, and modernization.

Faith-Based Initiatives? LOL, they were fathered by the Big Daddy of all Republicans, William Jefferson Clinton, who had a conservative agenda that I'm sure made Reagan blush. Clinton embraced (and acted upon) many of the tenets put forth in Newt Gingrich's "Contract With America", including "Faith-Based Initiatives". You can believe Mrs. Clinton won't let them forget it, either.

African-American Museum? Talk about throwing Black America a bone...it's flat-out appalling.

The Clinton/Obama (Obama/Clinton?) ticket might not come to pass because of Obama's own reluctance, but there are a lot of reasons that this might be put-up or shut-up time for the junior senator from the great state of Illinois. I for one, would love to see it.

RaisingPaine

4:37 PM  
Blogger RaisingPaine said...

Incidentally, Gary Sperling of the Christian Science Monitor is asking the question a lot more people are starting to ask. Why not now?

http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0705/p09s01-cogs.html

5:36 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Unfortunately,I believe you are right on the money.I am a Mexican-American female,with Black children(Blaxican!) and I am soooo fed up with the majority of Mexicans(especially Mexican-born)hatred of Blacks!And there's not a damn thing that can be done about it,this nation is racist enough,now we have THOUSANDS more racists entering our country every day!My children are called "nigger"(or "miyate") by more Mexican children than White.So,I guess Barack in 2008 is an impossible dream.Villaraigosa on the other hand...

4:16 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The racist comic posted has no basis to support the point you are trying to make. Whatever you are trying to make the point of the Latino "Anti Black" vote is very off. A majority of the people spoken of in this forum are illegal and cannot vote. Do not forget that once incarcerated you cannot vote. I'm not ignorant and racist so I would not automatically presume that any intelligent person of any race would exclude someone for the presidency because of their race. I do not live my life wearing rose colored glasses either. I know we have racial tension in America, but I wouldn't be such a bigot to say that the ENTIRE Latino community would not vote Clinton/Obama because of Obama's race. Even if you would correct, if you think that the Latino population has such an enormous impact on America, I would ask you to Google the US racial demographics once more. I'm sure that America has a stale taste in their mouth after 8 years of enduring the Bush disaster, that we will unite as a country, as a united people and change the regime.
Check out this link:http://www.thestreetspirit.org/October2005/Bush.jpg

2:21 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

raisingpaine said, quote:

"Let's start with the brother's name. It's Barack Obama. Not Barak."

Thanks for pointing that out. I was about to, but saw that you had beat me to it.. Research is essential, ha ha.

I'm just a regular working class white guy, and I'd be pleased as hell to see either Barack or Hillary win the presidency. But a Clinton/Obama ticket in 2008? (Or vice versa) It would be a Democratic powerhouse!!

The voting results would probably go down in history as being the largest landslide vote ever.

4:55 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The big issue here is the tension and animosity between Blacks and Latinos. This is certainly not benefiting either group..who is it benefiting? White people. The more that whites (through power, media, and propaganda) pit minority groups against eachother, the more that white people maintain power. White corporate interests, for example, would love to convince Black folks that Mexicans are taking their jobs. These are people who are making 40-50 times as much money, sitting in their corporate towers. The real issues, like the working poor, and the discrepancy between rich and poor in our country can be glossed over...and whites retain their white supremacy. It is ironic that someone like Barack may not win the primary election because of the lack of Latino- another oppressed group- votes...is disheartening- to say the least.

6:54 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

IF EITHER CANDIDATE TRULY HAD THE BEST INTEREST OF THE COUNTRY AND THE POLITICAL PARTY AT HEART THEN THERE WOULD BE NO DISCUSSION, THEY WOULD RUN TOGETHER.

THIS RACE REALLY SHOULD BE ABOUT WHO THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY WANTS TO RUN AS PRESIDENT. THE RUNNER UP SHOULD BE THE VICE PRESIDENT CANDIDATE.

THERE IS NO WAY THE REPUBLICANS WOULD BEAT A CLINTON/OBAMA TICKET OR OBAMA/CLINTON TICKET. TOGETHER THEY ARE UNBEATABLE.

2:59 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

What a racist retard!!

5:09 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I just want to caution the DNC that whatever is done to amicably resolve the current deadlock contest for the democratic presidential nominee, cognisance should be taken of the sensitivity of the party’s traditional african american membership and support.

The RNC would be looking to cash-in on this opportunity, especially if my suspicion that the current secretary of state, Condi Rice, might be used as a checkmate to capture both the women/african-american votes in the general election!

Whatever misgivings voters might have as to Senator McCain’s candidacy and endorsement by President Bush, when it comes security and foreign policy issues, Senator Clinton can never match-up. Should the DNC fail to manage the Obama-Clinton nomination imbroglio in a just and fair enough way, this would further make a McCain-Rice ticket more appealing.

1:27 PM  

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